Estimating vehicle sales and market size
Clifford Thames has been asked by a client to find a reliable methodology for estimating detailed vehicle sales and market size in the Middle East.
According to Jason Clarke (Strategic Account Director):
"Many of the automotive markets in the Middle East do not have the publicly available vehicle registration information that is common in other markets. We have been asked to look into generating a robust and replicable process by which detailed sales information can be estimated from available data sources. To date, market estimates are largely based on vehicle import and export statistics adjusted for scrapage. However such estimates are unable to accurately estimate the geographic distribution of vehicles within a country and have anecdotally been reported as being up to 30% out for some brands."
The Clifford Thames approach will be to look for available datasets on population demographics and other indicators and combine this data with consumer and dealer research to build a model to estimate vehicle sales and geographic distribution by model and age.
Jason added
"The key to this project will be not only to identify statistically reliable predictors of vehicle sales and ownership, but also to calibrate and test any estimations by comparison with dealer sales records."
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